Food for thought at the end of a short but eventful week...
- Thanks to Barry Ritholtz for posting links to David Rosenberg's Wednesday appearance on CNBC Squawk Box. All three segments Barry included are worthwhile, but the last one packs more raw insight into four minutes than you're likely to see the rest of the year. Check it out. We've long been fans of Rosenberg, who sees things (and says things!) as clearly as anyone we've encountered on the street. Is he always "right"? Of course not. No one is. But he cuts through the Street's daily noise with an understated Canadian straightforwardness that we find thoroughly refreshing.
- As Joseph Ellis showed in Ahead of the Curve, the rate of change in real consumer spending correlates tightly with corporate earnings. Which adds this morning's release of flat real personal consumption expenditures in April to the expanding file labeled "consumer recession."
- Good stuff from Calculated Risk and The Economist on residential real estate prices.
- Here's a short item on behavioral finance from the WSJ's Marketbeat: "If It Feels Bad, It's Probably a Good Trade."
- Here's a very rich post from Yves Smith on oil demand and commodity prices in general. We especially like his invocation of a point made by the FT's John Dizard:
The political reaction to high prices is most likely to lead to legislated changes in commodities markets regulation in the US and elsewhere. I am fairly certain that the changes will take effect after the coming decline in commodities prices.
I say decline because there always is one, and the late-stage political reaction suggests it is coming soon.
Of all lagging indicators, political posturing (even when understandable and non-crazy) is surely one of the laggingest.