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March 31, 2009
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Mar 31, 2009 9:43:51 AM
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What Marks the Bottom?
We've touched on this topic before, but with calls of "the bottom is in!" reverberating across Wall Street, we thought it might be time to revisit it. What are the markers of durable troughs, often referred to as "bottoms," in asset values? There's no failsafe sign, of course, and there's no guarantee that this process will play out as its historical predecessors have. But if we could point to a single factor common to most long-term bottoms, it's a sequence in which traders and investors move from hope to revulsion to indifference. First you'll hear expressions of hope that the...
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Mean Reversion in Re-Opened Funds
This morning's Wall Street Journal contains a mildly interesting piece on mutual funds that have recently re-opened after closing to new investors at some point in the last few years. "By closing a fund to new investors," writes the Journal's Shefali Anand, "management is in effect putting shareholder benefit above its near-term profits." That's true enough, and it's worth noting. But there's another reality on display in this story, one that's more relevant to investor decision-making: The tendency for mutual funds to outperform in one period and underperform in the next. Here's Anand: Four years ago, the top-performing Hotchkis &...
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